Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$1.8K
$286
81.3¢ → 97.2¢
+19% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
4870h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 86¢ | $838.45 | $952.34 | +$108.53 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
KR Krass | Noavg 77.4¢ | $515.35 | $650.74 | +$131.07 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 RememberAmalek<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $43.2 | $78.16 | +$34.52 | 56% 972-768 (1740) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $40 | $38.86 | -$0.22 | 38% 19-31 (50) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $25.8 | $29.27 | +$3.47 | 52% 2049-1868 (3917) |
 MEPP<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $19.54 | +$8.63 | 64% 631-352 (983) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$838.45
Value
$952.34
PnL
+$108.53
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$515.35
Value
$650.74
PnL
+$131.07
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
RememberAmalek<$100Invested
$43.2
Value
$78.16
PnL
+$34.52
Record
56%
972-768 (1740)
Invested
$40
Value
$38.86
PnL
-$0.22
Record
38%
19-31 (50)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$29.27
PnL
+$3.47
Record
52%
2049-1868 (3917)
MEPP<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$19.54
PnL
+$8.63
Record
64%
631-352 (983)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.