Will the US rank 19th or higher in the World Happiness Report 2027?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 62¢ · $204 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
$204.33
$26.15
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $114.7 | $138 | +$23.3 | 2% 1-52 (53) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.8¢ | $22.38 | $20.12 | -$2.26 | 39% 3636-5765 (9401) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $23 | $16.1 | -$6.9 | 12% 21-148 (169) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $21.04 | $14.44 | -$6.6 | 40% 14-21 (35) |
 GluckykluckyCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $12.52 | $12.52 | +$0 | — 0-3 (3) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $1.75 | -$0.65 | 37% 1527-2596 (4123) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $28.8 | $1.4 | +$19.26 | 43% 5066-6598 (11664) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$114.7
Value
$138
PnL
+$23.3
Record
2%
1-52 (53)
Invested
$22.38
Value
$20.12
PnL
-$2.26
Record
39%
3636-5765 (9401)
Invested
$23
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$6.9
Record
12%
21-148 (169)
Invested
$21.04
Value
$14.44
PnL
-$6.6
Record
40%
14-21 (35)
GluckykluckyCTR<$100Invested
$12.52
Value
$12.52
PnL
+$0
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$0.65
Record
37%
1527-2596 (4123)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$28.8
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$19.26
Record
43%
5066-6598 (11664)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.