Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 19¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$132.27

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 19¢

-62% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$896.25

Total Shares1,431

Combined PnL+$197.76

No3 traders

Total Value$165.27

Total Shares441

Combined PnL-$65.49

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gaclfzCTR	Yesavg 49.9¢	$659.63	$826.17	+$166.55	73% 1251-469 (1720)
crypto-basenji	Noavg 48.4¢	$183.91	$142.63	-$41.28	38% 168-277 (445)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 49.7¢	$161.92	$70.07	+$31.21	36% 15014-27067 (42081)
Relaccsed<$100	Noavg 80¢	$37.67	$17.66	-$20.01	56% 1195-949 (2144)
PI pieped<$100	Noavg 69¢	$9.18	$4.99	-$4.19	42% 65-88 (153)

gaclfzCTR

Yes

Invested

$659.63

Value

$826.17

PnL

+$166.55

Record

73%

1251-469 (1720)

crypto-basenji

Invested

$183.91

Value

$142.63

PnL

-$41.28

Record

38%

168-277 (445)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$161.92

Value

$70.07

PnL

+$31.21

Record

36%

15014-27067 (42081)

Relaccsed<$100

Invested

$37.67

Value

$17.66

PnL

-$20.01

Record

56%

1195-949 (2144)

pieped<$100

Invested

$9.18

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$4.19

Record

42%

65-88 (153)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.6%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$384.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

484.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.