Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 73¢ · $702 held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$702.25

Combined PnL

-$10.65

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 73.1¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$611.61

Total Shares821

Combined PnL-$12.4

Yes2 traders

Total Value$90.63

Total Shares345

Combined PnL+$1.75

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

961h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 79.3¢	$361.38	$246.62	-$19.77	52% 33-31 (64)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 78.4¢	$129.81	$122.27	-$7.54	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$86.54	$88.85	+$2.3	84% 66-13 (79)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 71¢	$38.34	$39.88	+$1.54	84% 38-7 (45)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$35.69	$39.53	+$3.84	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$34.68	$36.93	+$2.25	30% 2683-6207 (8890)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$28.93	$31.01	+$2.08	26% 858-2483 (3341)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$26.37	$29.54	+$3.17	80% 48-12 (60)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 66¢	$26.36	$29.48	+$3.12	51% 4634-4520 (9154)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 80¢	$29.58	$28.97	-$0.62	40% 8-12 (20)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$7.86	$7.39	-$0.47	41% 3108-4463 (7571)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.4¢	$2.33	$1.78	-$0.55	80% 20-5 (25)

Haradwaith

Invested

$361.38

Value

$246.62

PnL

-$19.77

Record

52%

33-31 (64)

cigarettes

Invested

$129.81

Value

$122.27

PnL

-$7.54

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.54

Value

$88.85

PnL

+$2.3

Record

84%

66-13 (79)

korda77<$100

Invested

$38.34

Value

$39.88

PnL

+$1.54

Record

84%

38-7 (45)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$35.69

Value

$39.53

PnL

+$3.84

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$34.68

Value

$36.93

PnL

+$2.25

Record

30%

2683-6207 (8890)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$28.93

Value

$31.01

PnL

+$2.08

Record

26%

858-2483 (3341)

merod<$100

Invested

$26.37

Value

$29.54

PnL

+$3.17

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$26.36

Value

$29.48

PnL

+$3.12

Record

51%

4634-4520 (9154)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$29.58

Value

$28.97

PnL

-$0.62

Record

40%

8-12 (20)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

$7.39

PnL

-$0.47

Record

41%

3108-4463 (7571)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.33

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.55

Record

80%

20-5 (25)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

961h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.1%

73.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.