Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.0K
$434.47
75.8¢ → 66.5¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
514h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $48.71 | $488.5 | +$327.65 | 53% 1090-978 (2068) |
 perfectnostalgia | Noavg 77.7¢ | $379.72 | $320.3 | -$61.87 | 55% 333-270 (603) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $82.01 | $122.43 | +$40.43 | 35% 14704-26888 (41592) |
 FrozenParasite | Noavg 68.7¢ | $425.38 | $81.99 | +$114.72 | 55% 444-364 (808) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $1.83 | $13.35 | +$13.55 | 32% 6241-12971 (19212) |
Invested
$48.71
Value
$488.5
PnL
+$327.65
Record
53%
1090-978 (2068)
perfectnostalgiaInvested
$379.72
Value
$320.3
PnL
-$61.87
Record
55%
333-270 (603)
Invested
$82.01
Value
$122.43
PnL
+$40.43
Record
35%
14704-26888 (41592)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$425.38
Value
$81.99
PnL
+$114.72
Record
55%
444-364 (808)
Invested
$1.83
Value
$13.35
PnL
+$13.55
Record
32%
6241-12971 (19212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.