Will the total domestic gross for "Godzilla Minus Zero" be less than $100M by December 15?

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (15%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 16

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 15%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$57.93

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 97.5¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,532

Combined PnL+$120.19

No11 traders

Total Value$25.88

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL-$62.26

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 89.3¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$123.71	— 1-6 (7)
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$24.68	$20.95	-$3.52	4% 1-24 (25)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 6.5¢	$15.6	$6.12	-$9.48	50% 4565-4478 (9043)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 7.3¢	$11.14	$3.88	-$7.26	18% 60-275 (335)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$10.45	$2.67	-$7.79	44% 1080-1379 (2459)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$10.45	$2.67	-$7.79	27% 499-1348 (1847)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$10.45	$2.67	-$7.79	28% 522-1370 (1892)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$9.99	$2.55	-$7.44	27% 499-1317 (1816)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$9.99	$2.55	-$7.44	28% 521-1360 (1881)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$4.84	$1.12	-$3.72	— 1-18 (19)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$3.83	$0.89	-$2.95	15% 3-17 (20)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 4.7¢	$1.2	$0.65	-$0.54	41% 3059-4446 (7505)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.13	-$0.07	78% 249-70 (319)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$1,349.62

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$123.71

Record

—

1-6 (7)

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.68

Value

$20.95

PnL

-$3.52

Record

1-24 (25)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$9.48

Record

50%

4565-4478 (9043)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$11.14

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$7.26

Record

18%

60-275 (335)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$7.79

Record

44%

1080-1379 (2459)

klli27CTR<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$7.79

Record

27%

499-1348 (1847)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$7.79

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

pollo07CTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$7.44

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

akrollCTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$7.44

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$3.72

Record

—

1-18 (19)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$2.95

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.54

Record

41%

3059-4446 (7505)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.07

Record

78%

249-70 (319)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.