Will the total domestic gross for "Godzilla Minus Zero" be between $100M and $120M by December 15?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $418 held · ends Dec 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$417.88
$34.91
91¢ → 99.4¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 91¢ | $218.4 | $238.56 | +$20.16 | 51% 4631-4518 (9149) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $68.25 | $74.55 | +$6.3 | 24% 75-243 (318) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $45.5 | $49.7 | +$4.2 | 40% 1453-2158 (3611) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $31.72 | $34.65 | +$2.93 | 13% 3-20 (23) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $19.88 | +$1.68 | 29% 881-2138 (3019) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.89 | $0.54 | -$0.36 | 41% 3107-4462 (7569) |
balthazarInvested
$218.4
Value
$238.56
PnL
+$20.16
Record
51%
4631-4518 (9149)
Invested
$68.25
Value
$74.55
PnL
+$6.3
Record
24%
75-243 (318)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$49.7
PnL
+$4.2
Record
40%
1453-2158 (3611)
Invested
$31.72
Value
$34.65
PnL
+$2.93
Record
13%
3-20 (23)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$1.68
Record
29%
881-2138 (3019)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$0.36
Record
41%
3107-4462 (7569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.