Will the total domestic gross for "Godzilla Minus Zero" be at least $200M by December 15?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $199 held · ends Dec 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$199.43
-$54.92
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 99.7¢ | $104.67 | $104.69 | +$0.01 | 40% 1474-2198 (3672) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.87 | $49.85 | -$0.02 | 29% 892-2174 (3066) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $26.08 | $23.98 | -$2.1 | 40% 3240-4885 (8125) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.94 | -$0.02 | 24% 91-281 (372) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $34.26 | $0.72 | -$33.54 | 47% 4815-5470 (10285) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $5.32 | $0.11 | -$5.21 | 5% 4-72 (76) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $4.98 | $0.1 | -$4.88 | 11% 6-50 (56) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $16.41 | $0.04 | -$9.17 | 19% 816-3584 (4400) |
Invested
$104.67
Value
$104.69
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
1474-2198 (3672)
Invested
$49.87
Value
$49.85
PnL
-$0.02
Record
29%
892-2174 (3066)
Invested
$26.08
Value
$23.98
PnL
-$2.1
Record
40%
3240-4885 (8125)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0.02
Record
24%
91-281 (372)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$34.26
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$33.54
Record
47%
4815-5470 (10285)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$5.21
Record
5%
4-72 (76)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$4.88
Record
11%
6-50 (56)
Invested
$16.41
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$9.17
Record
19%
816-3584 (4400)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.