Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 63¢ · $189 held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$188.52
-$2.33
65¢ → 63¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
168h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $64 | $63 | -$1 | — |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $63.5 | $59.85 | -$3.65 | 90% 61-7 (68) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $29.16 | $28.98 | -$0.18 | 39% 1005-1573 (2578) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $16.55 | $18.56 | +$2.01 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $15.84 | $16.28 | +$0.44 | — |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.85 | +$0.05 | — 9-2 (11) |
Invested
$64
Value
$63
PnL
-$1
Record
—
Invested
$63.5
Value
$59.85
PnL
-$3.65
Record
90%
61-7 (68)
Invested
$29.16
Value
$28.98
PnL
-$0.18
Record
39%
1005-1573 (2578)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$18.56
PnL
+$2.01
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$16.28
PnL
+$0.44
Record
—
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
—
9-2 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.