Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the June meeting?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 24, 2027

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Thu, Jun 24, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$163.09

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 72.5¢

+41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$852.23

Total Shares1,165

Combined PnL+$240.04

No5 traders

Total Value$67.39

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$76.94

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

215h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoat	Yesavg 51.7¢	$548.46	$768.98	+$220.52	— 0-5 (5)
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$183.6	$182.81	-$0.79	12% 22-156 (178)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.7¢	$90.96	$130.01	+$39.05
└ No leg	Noavg 48.3¢	$92.64	$52.8	-$39.84
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$58.2	$79.94	+$21.74	41% 3126-4493 (7619)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 50¢	$150	$21.97	-$12.38	51% 40-38 (78)
HoshinoAICTR	Noavg 47.9¢	$233.18	$17.64	-$40.76	43% 13-17 (30)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$15.6	$11	-$4.6	84% 47-9 (56)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$14.88	$8.53	-$6.36	10% 3-28 (31)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$48.1	$8.25	-$12.85	3% 1-28 (29)
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 60.7¢	$29.15	$3.31	-$2.22	3% 1-32 (33)

YoungAlphaGoat

Yes

Invested

$548.46

Value

$768.98

PnL

+$220.52

Record

—

0-5 (5)

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Invested

$183.6

Value

$182.81

PnL

-$0.79

Record

12%

22-156 (178)

Both legs:

Yes$90.9650.7¢+$39.05

No$92.6448.3¢-$39.84

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.2

Value

$79.94

PnL

+$21.74

Record

41%

3126-4493 (7619)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$150

Value

$21.97

PnL

-$12.38

Record

51%

40-38 (78)

HoshinoAICTR

Invested

$233.18

Value

$17.64

PnL

-$40.76

Record

43%

13-17 (30)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$11

PnL

-$4.6

Record

84%

47-9 (56)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$14.88

Value

$8.53

PnL

-$6.36

Record

10%

3-28 (31)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$48.1

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$12.85

Record

1-28 (29)

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.15

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$2.22

Record

1-32 (33)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

215h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.3%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.