Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 10

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Thu, Dec 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$279.36

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 86.3¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,157

Combined PnL+$268.63

No4 traders

Total Value$111.03

Total Shares838

Combined PnL+$10.74

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

562h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 76.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$226.6	27% 6766-18641 (25407)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 73.4¢	$97.19	$114.94	+$20.27	89% 4707-555 (5262)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 75.3¢	$71.52	$82.41	+$10.89	18% 4236-19937 (24173)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 12.6¢	$53.01	$55.25	+$2.68	15% 435-2472 (2907)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 18.8¢	$107.37	$51.91	+$7.25	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Yesavg 75.8¢	$27.25	$31.19	+$3.94	56% 18179-14063 (32242)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 9.3¢	$2.69	$3.33	+$0.65	43% 2149-2803 (4952)
Lucerys<$100	Yes	$1.78	$2.02	+$6.93	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	No	$0.53	$0.53	+$0.16	49% 110-114 (224)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$1,489.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$226.6

Record

27%

6766-18641 (25407)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$97.19

Value

$114.94

PnL

+$20.27

Record

89%

4707-555 (5262)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.52

Value

$82.41

PnL

+$10.89

Record

18%

4236-19937 (24173)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$53.01

Value

$55.25

PnL

+$2.68

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$107.37

Value

$51.91

PnL

+$7.25

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.25

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$3.94

Record

56%

18179-14063 (32242)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$2.69

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.65

Record

43%

2149-2803 (4952)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$6.93

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.53

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

110-114 (224)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

562h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.7%

86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.