Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 10

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Dec 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$239.07

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 86.3¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,262

Combined PnL+$68.42

Yes5 traders

Total Value$994.93

Total Shares7,509

Combined PnL-$307.48

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

565h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 88.6¢	$82.57	$1.0K	+$128.54	73% 12663-4649 (17312)
AG aghyCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$907.25	$728.28	-$178.97	— 5-11 (16)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.7¢	$856.69	$615.48	-$6.5	35% 17899-33380 (51279)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 18.2¢	$373.88	$250.59	-$117.91	27% 6785-18664 (25449)
Istaroth	Noavg 86.8¢	$368.84	$160.03	-$6.44	15% 447-2555 (3002)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 85¢	$70.52	$71.89	+$1.37	53% 8083-7183 (15266)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$61.61	$55.32	-$6.29	56% 18187-14072 (32259)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$52.55	$53.26	+$3.05	29% 2340-5715 (8055)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$74.39	$32.53	-$41.65	42% 3695-5102 (8797)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 94¢	$22.56	$20.82	-$1.74	42% 2984-4080 (7064)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 94¢	$19.99	$18.45	-$1.54	44% 6278-8008 (14286)
VE VerilyWinningly<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$17.7	$17.35	-$0.38	18% 252-1164 (1416)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$26.01	$14.31	-$9.31	18% 4246-19975 (24221)
TE test456y78CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.15	$1.51	+$0.36	38% 101-167 (268)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$3.23	$0.24	-$1.65	58% 19232-14159 (33391)

donthackme

Invested

$82.57

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$128.54

Record

73%

12663-4649 (17312)

aghyCTR

Yes

Invested

$907.25

Value

$728.28

PnL

-$178.97

Record

—

5-11 (16)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$856.69

Value

$615.48

PnL

-$6.5

Record

35%

17899-33380 (51279)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$373.88

Value

$250.59

PnL

-$117.91

Record

27%

6785-18664 (25449)

Istaroth

Invested

$368.84

Value

$160.03

PnL

-$6.44

Record

15%

447-2555 (3002)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$70.52

Value

$71.89

PnL

+$1.37

Record

53%

8083-7183 (15266)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$61.61

Value

$55.32

PnL

-$6.29

Record

56%

18187-14072 (32259)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$52.55

Value

$53.26

PnL

+$3.05

Record

29%

2340-5715 (8055)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$74.39

Value

$32.53

PnL

-$41.65

Record

42%

3695-5102 (8797)

merod<$100

Invested

$22.56

Value

$20.82

PnL

-$1.74

Record

42%

2984-4080 (7064)

korda77<$100

Invested

$19.99

Value

$18.45

PnL

-$1.54

Record

44%

6278-8008 (14286)

VerilyWinningly<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$17.35

PnL

-$0.38

Record

18%

252-1164 (1416)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.01

Value

$14.31

PnL

-$9.31

Record

18%

4246-19975 (24221)

test456y78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.36

Record

38%

101-167 (268)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$1.65

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

565h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.7%

86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.