Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 99¢ · $142 held · ends Jun 24, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$142.12
-$36.11
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-83 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 99.7¢ | $157.71 | $141.33 | -$16.38 | 40% 3403-5074 (8477) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.11 | $0.31 | +$0.2 | 13% 54-364 (418) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $8 | $0.16 | -$7.84 | 36% 72-129 (201) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $6.12 | $0.12 | -$6 | 10% 9-79 (88) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $6 | $0.12 | -$5.88 | 8% 8-97 (105) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $0.22 | $0 | -$0.21 | 36% 87-153 (240) |
Invested
$157.71
Value
$141.33
PnL
-$16.38
Record
40%
3403-5074 (8477)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.31
PnL
+$0.2
Record
13%
54-364 (418)
Invested
$8
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$7.84
Record
36%
72-129 (201)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$6
Record
10%
9-79 (88)
Invested
$6
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$5.88
Record
8%
8-97 (105)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.21
Record
36%
87-153 (240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.