Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$353.88
$0.62
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $287.1 | $348.33 | +$61.23 | 41% 3059-4446 (7505) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51¢ | $186.8 | $235.97 | +$49.17 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.3¢ | $100.3 | $112.36 | +$12.06 | |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $4.92 | $5.54 | +$0.62 | 76% 16-5 (21) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.