Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the January meeting?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 28, 2027

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Thu, Jan 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$782.81

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 79¢

+66% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,737

Combined PnL+$847.69

No7 traders

Total Value$94.47

Total Shares450

Combined PnL-$64.88

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoat	Yesavg 47.6¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$840.39	— 0-5 (5)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 56¢	$116.66	$43.75	-$72.92	29% 348-840 (1188)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 27.7¢	$107.9	$36.53	+$8.58	14% 110-653 (763)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$8.4	$15.7	+$7.3	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 44.7¢	$62.79	$4.97	+$1.15	38% 3881-6344 (10225)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$5.18	$4.73	-$0.45	30% 1195-2736 (3931)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.12	$2.12	+$0	50% 975-969 (1944)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.98	$1.3	-$0.68	50% 910-924 (1834)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.64	$1.08	-$0.57	60% 938-634 (1572)

YoungAlphaGoat

Yes

Invested

$1,292.29

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$840.39

Record

—

0-5 (5)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$116.66

Value

$43.75

PnL

-$72.92

Record

29%

348-840 (1188)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$107.9

Value

$36.53

PnL

+$8.58

Record

14%

110-653 (763)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$15.7

PnL

+$7.3

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$62.79

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$1.15

Record

38%

3881-6344 (10225)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.45

Record

30%

1195-2736 (3931)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

975-969 (1944)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

910-924 (1834)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.57

Record

60%

938-634 (1572)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.