Will the San Jose Sharks record 90+ points?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 58¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$2.1K
-$345.81
61.8¢ → 58¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KnureKnume | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $2.3K | $1.7K | -$431.16 | 48% 397-431 (828) |
 NooseracCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $167.83 | $255.48 | +$87.65 | 52% 5755-5330 (11085) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 67.1¢ | $228.3 | $113.43 | -$3.86 | 36% 15259-27344 (42603) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $4.37 | $5.35 | +$1.55 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
KnureKnumeInvested
$2,276.56
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$431.16
Record
48%
397-431 (828)
NooseracCTRInvested
$167.83
Value
$255.48
PnL
+$87.65
Record
52%
5755-5330 (11085)
Invested
$228.3
Value
$113.43
PnL
-$3.86
Record
36%
15259-27344 (42603)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$5.35
PnL
+$1.55
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.