Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between November 15 and November 30, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 46¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$180.5
$3.23
53.5¢ → 45.5¢
-15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.8¢ | $70.83 | $70.83 | +$0 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $33.19 | $38.69 | +$5.5 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $35.7 | $36.94 | +$1.24 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $19.8 | $20.66 | +$0.86 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $17.76 | $13.39 | -$4.37 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
Invested
$70.83
Value
$70.83
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$33.19
Value
$38.69
PnL
+$5.5
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$35.7
Value
$36.94
PnL
+$1.24
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$20.66
PnL
+$0.86
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$13.39
PnL
-$4.37
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.