Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between December 16 and December 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $82 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$82.26
$2.78
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
112h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $22 | $22.6 | +$0.6 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $22.33 | $22.07 | -$0.25 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $9 | $13 | +$4 | — 3-6 (9) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $11.79 | $11.53 | -$0.27 | 32% 811-1697 (2508) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $7.26 | $7.1 | -$0.16 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.5¢ | $7.1 | $5.96 | -$1.14 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$22
Value
$22.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$22.33
Value
$22.07
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$13
PnL
+$4
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$11.79
Value
$11.53
PnL
-$0.27
Record
32%
811-1697 (2508)
Invested
$7.26
Value
$7.1
PnL
-$0.16
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$5.96
PnL
-$1.14
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.