Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the February meeting?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $218 held · ends Feb 5, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Feb 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$217.82

Combined PnL

$44.92

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 96.9¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$211.5

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$49.74

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.32

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$4.82

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$46.44	$70.36	+$23.92	72% 12351-4916 (17267)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 59.9¢	$35.85	$59.27	+$23.42	55% 26583-22175 (48758)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$52.21	$53.36	+$1.15	79% 10892-2961 (13853)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 95¢	$15.2	$15.84	+$0.64	31% 2028-4529 (6557)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$12.06	$12.67	+$0.61	54% 450-382 (832)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$10.6	$4.72	-$5.88	35% 17252-31838 (49090)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.54	$1.6	+$1.06	20% 2356-9209 (11565)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$46.44

Value

$70.36

PnL

+$23.92

Record

72%

12351-4916 (17267)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$35.85

Value

$59.27

PnL

+$23.42

Record

55%

26583-22175 (48758)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$52.21

Value

$53.36

PnL

+$1.15

Record

79%

10892-2961 (13853)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$0.64

Record

31%

2028-4529 (6557)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.06

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.61

Record

54%

450-382 (832)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$5.88

Record

35%

17252-31838 (49090)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$1.06

Record

20%

2356-9209 (11565)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.