Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $487 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$486.94
$15.42
84.7¢ → 87.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 86.3¢ | $159.03 | $161.19 | +$2.16 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 82.1¢ | $131.97 | $140.76 | +$8.79 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $85 | $87.5 | +$2.5 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $45.95 | $48.13 | +$2.17 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $84.15 | $31.83 | +$0.1 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $17.5 | -$0.3 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
Invested
$159.03
Value
$161.19
PnL
+$2.16
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$131.97
Value
$140.76
PnL
+$8.79
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
balthazar<$100Invested
$85
Value
$87.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$45.95
Value
$48.13
PnL
+$2.17
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$84.15
Value
$31.83
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$17.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.