Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 79¢ · $384 held · ends Feb 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
1 arb excluded
$384.37
$107.57
49.1¢ → 79¢
+61% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-22 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $176.07 | $152.52 | -$14.24 | 16% 410-2142 (2552) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76¢ | $118.25 | $121.4 | +$3.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $42.66 | $31.12 | -$17.32 | |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 7.6¢ | $4.64 | $47.65 | +$43 | 72% 12342-4910 (17252) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $16.2 | $46.75 | +$30.55 | 55% 26226-21675 (47901) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $43.7 | $42.04 | -$1.66 | 79% 10865-2930 (13795) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $74.83 | $35.02 | +$36.83 | 35% 17137-31654 (48791) |
SP SpringlyFawl<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $23.84 | $23 | -$0.84 | 30% 2215-5153 (7368) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $14.04 | $14.04 | +$0 | 17% 1044-5063 (6107) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $12.96 | $12.48 | -$0.48 | 31% 1996-4503 (6499) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $9.86 | $9.98 | +$0.13 | 54% 434-363 (797) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $0.84 | $0.88 | +$0.04 | 42% 5362-7384 (12746) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$176.07
Value
$152.52
PnL
-$14.24
Record
16%
410-2142 (2552)
Both legs:
Invested
$4.64
Value
$47.65
PnL
+$43
Record
72%
12342-4910 (17252)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.2
Value
$46.75
PnL
+$30.55
Record
55%
26226-21675 (47901)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.7
Value
$42.04
PnL
-$1.66
Record
79%
10865-2930 (13795)
Invested
$74.83
Value
$35.02
PnL
+$36.83
Record
35%
17137-31654 (48791)
Invested
$23.84
Value
$23
PnL
-$0.84
Record
30%
2215-5153 (7368)
Invested
$14.04
Value
$14.04
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
1044-5063 (6107)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$12.48
PnL
-$0.48
Record
31%
1996-4503 (6499)
Invested
$9.86
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
434-363 (797)
Invested
$0.84
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0.04
Record
42%
5362-7384 (12746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.