Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (21%) · Yes at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 5, 2027

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Fri, Feb 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 21%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 66.5¢

+35% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$956.39

Total Shares1,427

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No11 traders

Total Value$339.63

Total Shares976

Combined PnL+$29.2

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoat	Yesavg 48.8¢	$2.5K	$921.99	+$1.3K	45% 389-485 (874)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 39.3¢	$259.41	$154.59	+$29.26	35% 17137-31654 (48791)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$254.29	$130.01	-$63.33	16% 410-2142 (2552)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.1¢	$66.45	$87.11	+$20.68
└ No leg	Noavg 53.4¢	$69.42	$42.9	-$84.01
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 23.7¢	$39.14	$54.43	+$15.29	49% 7731-8108 (15839)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 44.6¢	$54.11	$26.73	-$11.63	17% 1044-5063 (6107)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 7.7¢	$5.49	$23.46	+$17.96	72% 12342-4910 (17252)
LP lpgb<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$31.98	$21	-$0.42	24% 285-886 (1171)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 36.3¢	$21.8	$19.8	-$2	55% 26226-21675 (47901)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$28.56	$18.48	-$10.08	24% 675-2113 (2788)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 24.1¢	$13	$17.79	+$4.79	79% 10865-2930 (13795)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$21.32	$13.53	-$7.79	16% 256-1299 (1555)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$13	$13.4	+$0.4	42% 5362-7384 (12746)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$3.84	$5.28	+$1.44	31% 1996-4503 (6499)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$4.35	$4.22	-$0.13	54% 434-363 (797)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$39.24	$1.32	-$7.92	25% 1608-4781 (6389)

YoungAlphaGoat

Yes

Invested

$2,462.18

Value

$921.99

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

45%

389-485 (874)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$259.41

Value

$154.59

PnL

+$29.26

Record

35%

17137-31654 (48791)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$254.29

Value

$130.01

PnL

-$63.33

Record

16%

410-2142 (2552)

Both legs:

Yes$66.4551.1¢+$20.68

No$69.4253.4¢-$84.01

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$39.14

Value

$54.43

PnL

+$15.29

Record

49%

7731-8108 (15839)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$54.11

Value

$26.73

PnL

-$11.63

Record

17%

1044-5063 (6107)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$5.49

Value

$23.46

PnL

+$17.96

Record

72%

12342-4910 (17252)

lpgb<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.98

Value

$21

PnL

-$0.42

Record

24%

285-886 (1171)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$21.8

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$2

Record

55%

26226-21675 (47901)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$28.56

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$10.08

Record

24%

675-2113 (2788)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$17.79

PnL

+$4.79

Record

79%

10865-2930 (13795)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$21.32

Value

$13.53

PnL

-$7.79

Record

16%

256-1299 (1555)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$13

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

42%

5362-7384 (12746)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$3.84

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$1.44

Record

31%

1996-4503 (6499)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.22

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

434-363 (797)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$39.24

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$7.92

Record

25%

1608-4781 (6389)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.4%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.