Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $479 held · ends Feb 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$479.02
$144.49
64.6¢ → 98.9¢
+53% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $164.01 | $286.22 | +$122.21 | 64% 464-262 (726) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 27.8¢ | $16.98 | $60.42 | +$43.44 | 72% 12503-4935 (17438) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $59.67 | $59.31 | -$0.36 | 54% 26594-22226 (48820) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $53.71 | $53.31 | -$0.4 | 79% 10898-2965 (13863) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $15.94 | $15.82 | -$0.11 | 31% 2028-4546 (6574) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.72 | $2.16 | +$1.44 | 20% 2358-9226 (11584) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $23.39 | $1.77 | -$21.62 | 35% 17266-31860 (49126) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $24 | $0.02 | -$0.1 | 49% 7767-8208 (15975) |
clazzy1Invested
$164.01
Value
$286.22
PnL
+$122.21
Record
64%
464-262 (726)
Invested
$16.98
Value
$60.42
PnL
+$43.44
Record
72%
12503-4935 (17438)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.67
Value
$59.31
PnL
-$0.36
Record
54%
26594-22226 (48820)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$53.71
Value
$53.31
PnL
-$0.4
Record
79%
10898-2965 (13863)
Invested
$15.94
Value
$15.82
PnL
-$0.11
Record
31%
2028-4546 (6574)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.72
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$1.44
Record
20%
2358-9226 (11584)
Invested
$23.39
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$21.62
Record
35%
17266-31860 (49126)
Invested
$24
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.1
Record
49%
7767-8208 (15975)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.