Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$12.8

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 98.8¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,512

Combined PnL+$405.48

Yes5 traders

Total Value$219.86

Total Shares14,729

Combined PnL-$418.28

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

777h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
macrosteaks	No	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$46.02	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	No	$9.92	$1.4K	+$343.97	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 98.5¢	$773.48	$773.48	+$0	63% 763-457 (1220)
bernardbulletin	Noavg 96¢	$526.58	$540.39	+$15.46	69% 1027-455 (1482)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$250.16	$202.49	-$373.62	61% 289-185 (474)
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$49.08	$12.27	-$39.26	53% 3042-2720 (5762)
HolyMoses7<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.95	$4.94	-$0	54% 1605-1394 (2999)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.28	$2.39	+$0.1	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$6.84	$1.39	-$5.45	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.37	$1.32	-$0.05	48% 6897-7543 (14440)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$1.03	$1.06	+$0.03	44% 6175-7916 (14091)

macrosteaks

Invested

$2,729.42

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$46.02

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$9.92

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$343.97

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

P1kaso

Invested

$773.48

Value

$773.48

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

763-457 (1220)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$526.58

Value

$540.39

PnL

+$15.46

Record

69%

1027-455 (1482)

SitsToPeeCTR

Yes

Invested

$250.16

Value

$202.49

PnL

-$373.62

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.08

Value

$12.27

PnL

-$39.26

Record

53%

3042-2720 (5762)

HolyMoses7<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1605-1394 (2999)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.84

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$5.45

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

6897-7543 (14440)

korda77<$100

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.03

Record

44%

6175-7916 (14091)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

777h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.