Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$198.99

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 69.5¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,582

Combined PnL+$178.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$266.03

Total Shares822

Combined PnL+$20.91

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

405h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 50.9¢	$391.5	$472.18	+$115.78	53% 7830-6946 (14776)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 46.4¢	$243.58	$346.11	+$102.53	49% 1246-1273 (2519)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$253.11	$247.08	+$5.07	45% 2406-2976 (5382)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 59.6¢	$715.23	$149.11	-$37.87	35% 17512-32753 (50265)
LP lpgb	Noavg 68¢	$107	$85.7	-$7.2	25% 302-922 (1224)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$15.69	$22.51	+$4.84	27% 6631-18348 (24979)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$3.11	$18.95	+$15.84	17% 4179-19735 (23914)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$391.5

Value

$472.18

PnL

+$115.78

Record

53%

7830-6946 (14776)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$243.58

Value

$346.11

PnL

+$102.53

Record

49%

1246-1273 (2519)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$253.11

Value

$247.08

PnL

+$5.07

Record

45%

2406-2976 (5382)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$715.23

Value

$149.11

PnL

-$37.87

Record

35%

17512-32753 (50265)

lpgb

Invested

$107

Value

$85.7

PnL

-$7.2

Record

25%

302-922 (1224)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$15.69

Value

$22.51

PnL

+$4.84

Record

27%

6631-18348 (24979)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.11

Value

$18.95

PnL

+$15.84

Record

17%

4179-19735 (23914)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

405h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.3%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.