Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republicans win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 35¢ · $254 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$254.38
-$14.21
36.6¢ → 34.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettesCTR | Noavg 36.6¢ | $197.98 | $186.42 | -$11.56 | 52% 5263-4776 (10039) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $33.25 | $32.78 | -$0.48 | 26% 360-1007 (1367) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $24.96 | $22.08 | -$2.88 | — 1-10 (11) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $12.4 | $13.1 | +$0.7 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
Invested
$197.98
Value
$186.42
PnL
-$11.56
Record
52%
5263-4776 (10039)
Invested
$33.25
Value
$32.78
PnL
-$0.48
Record
26%
360-1007 (1367)
Invested
$24.96
Value
$22.08
PnL
-$2.88
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$13.1
PnL
+$0.7
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.