Will the Republicans win North Carolina in the 2028 Presidential Election?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 69¢ · $473 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$473.12

Combined PnL

$29.26

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$441.14

Total Shares646

Combined PnL+$12.59

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.98

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$16.66

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 70.9¢	$156	$150.7	-$5.3	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 62.6¢	$155.62	$150.12	+$21.63	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 71¢	$81.32	$78.45	-$2.86	58% 864-619 (1483)
VE VerilyWinningly<$100	Noavg 70¢	$32.2	$31.51	-$0.69	26% 381-1105 (1486)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$7.93	$19.38	+$16.06	24% 788-2560 (3348)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 70¢	$14	$13.7	-$0.3	15% 39-214 (253)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$12	$12.6	+$0.6	14% 103-624 (727)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 68¢	$4.17	$4.2	+$0.03	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 68¢	$4.15	$4.18	+$0.03	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 68¢	$4.14	$4.17	+$0.03	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 68¢	$4.09	$4.12	+$0.03	47% 1242-1391 (2633)

cigarettes

Invested

$156

Value

$150.7

PnL

-$5.3

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$155.62

Value

$150.12

PnL

+$21.63

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$81.32

Value

$78.45

PnL

-$2.86

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

VerilyWinningly<$100

Invested

$32.2

Value

$31.51

PnL

-$0.69

Record

26%

381-1105 (1486)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.93

Value

$19.38

PnL

+$16.06

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$13.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

15%

39-214 (253)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

14%

103-624 (727)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.3%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.