Will the Republicans win New Hampshire in the 2028 Presidential Election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $456 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$456.22
-$49.56
71¢ → 74.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 70.5¢ | $210 | $215.25 | +$5.25 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 72¢ | $103.88 | $104.61 | +$0.72 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
 balthazar | Noavg 71.4¢ | $135.26 | $95.63 | -$39.63 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $32.39 | $22.71 | -$9.67 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $24.26 | $18.01 | -$6.24 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
Invested
$210
Value
$215.25
PnL
+$5.25
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Invested
$103.88
Value
$104.61
PnL
+$0.72
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
balthazarInvested
$135.26
Value
$95.63
PnL
-$39.63
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$32.39
Value
$22.71
PnL
-$9.67
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$24.26
Value
$18.01
PnL
-$6.24
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.