Will the Republicans win Nevada in the 2028 Presidential Election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 67¢ · $154 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$153.52
$0.89
68.7¢ → 66.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $48.46 | $50.55 | +$2.1 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $41.32 | $41.32 | -$0 | — 0-12 (12) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $28.94 | $26.93 | -$2.01 | — 6-8 (14) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $21.12 | $21.32 | +$0.2 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $12.8 | $13.4 | +$0.6 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
Invested
$48.46
Value
$50.55
PnL
+$2.1
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
Invested
$41.32
Value
$41.32
PnL
-$0
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$28.94
Value
$26.93
PnL
-$2.01
Record
—
6-8 (14)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$21.12
Value
$21.32
PnL
+$0.2
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$13.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.