Will the Republicans win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $340 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$340.45
$6.9
82.7¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 82¢ | $264.18 | $229.78 | +$6.44 | 60% 497-336 (833) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $57.69 | $58.09 | +$0.4 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $19.29 | $19.35 | +$0.06 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.88 | $16.88 | +$0 | 48% 23-25 (48) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.35 | $16.35 | +$0 | 40% 657-967 (1624) |
Invested
$264.18
Value
$229.78
PnL
+$6.44
Record
60%
497-336 (833)
Invested
$57.69
Value
$58.09
PnL
+$0.4
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$19.29
Value
$19.35
PnL
+$0.06
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$16.88
Value
$16.88
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
23-25 (48)
Invested
$16.35
Value
$16.35
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
657-967 (1624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.