Will the Republicans win Michigan in the 2028 Presidential Election?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $354 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$354.48
$2.79
69.3¢ → 70.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 69¢ | $122.93 | $125.6 | +$2.67 | 28% 368-936 (1304) |
 HaradwaithCTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $118 | $120.03 | +$2.03 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $42.16 | $40.12 | -$2.04 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $36.28 | $35.92 | -$0.36 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $26.54 | $27.12 | +$0.58 | 26% 361-1008 (1369) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $5.78 | $5.69 | -$0.1 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$122.93
Value
$125.6
PnL
+$2.67
Record
28%
368-936 (1304)
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$118
Value
$120.03
PnL
+$2.03
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
Invested
$42.16
Value
$40.12
PnL
-$2.04
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$36.28
Value
$35.92
PnL
-$0.36
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$26.54
Value
$27.12
PnL
+$0.58
Record
26%
361-1008 (1369)
Invested
$5.78
Value
$5.69
PnL
-$0.1
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.