Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Republicans win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 47¢ · $912 held · ends Nov 3

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$912.08

Combined PnL

-$56.6

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 46.5¢

-20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$731.74

Total Shares1,431

Combined PnL-$164.83

No3 traders

Total Value$180.34

Total Shares402

Combined PnL+$108.23

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yesavg 63.8¢	$543.61	$396.14	-$147.47	55% 444-364 (808)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$352.96	$335.61	-$17.36	53% 1096-980 (2076)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 36.4¢	$30.81	$101.55	+$70.74	35% 14791-26919 (41710)
SB sbimbg<$100	Noavg 37¢	$20.3	$58.79	+$38.49	70% 3133-1349 (4482)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 54¢	$21	$20	-$1	28% 280-709 (989)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$543.61

Value

$396.14

PnL

-$147.47

Record

55%

444-364 (808)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$352.96

Value

$335.61

PnL

-$17.36

Record

53%

1096-980 (2076)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$30.81

Value

$101.55

PnL

+$70.74

Record

35%

14791-26919 (41710)

sbimbg<$100

Invested

$20.3

Value

$58.79

PnL

+$38.49

Record

70%

3133-1349 (4482)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$20

PnL

-$1

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.5%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$106.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

206.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.