Will the Republicans win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $190 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$190.03
$4.15
66.4¢ → 68.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 67.1¢ | $125.32 | $126.84 | +$1.52 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $32.64 | $32.64 | +$0 | 16% 10-52 (62) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $18 | $20.4 | +$2.4 | 52% 5301-4808 (10109) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $6.82 | $6.75 | -$0.07 | — 1-10 (11) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $3.4 | +$0.3 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
Invested
$125.32
Value
$126.84
PnL
+$1.52
Record
40%
3002-4411 (7413)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$32.64
Value
$32.64
PnL
+$0
Record
16%
10-52 (62)
Invested
$18
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$2.4
Record
52%
5301-4808 (10109)
Invested
$6.82
Value
$6.75
PnL
-$0.07
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.3
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.