Will the Republicans win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 62¢ · $424 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$424.23
-$105.12
76.7¢ → 61.5¢
-20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 76.1¢ | $157.22 | $127.01 | -$30.21 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 77¢ | $153.23 | $122.39 | -$30.84 | — 3-6 (9) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Yesavg 77¢ | $140.14 | $111.93 | -$28.21 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $78.76 | $62.91 | -$15.85 | — 1-10 (11) |
Invested
$157.22
Value
$127.01
PnL
-$30.21
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
HaradwaithInvested
$153.23
Value
$122.39
PnL
-$30.84
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$140.14
Value
$111.93
PnL
-$28.21
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
Invested
$78.76
Value
$62.91
PnL
-$15.85
Record
—
1-10 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.