Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 77¢ · $472 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$472.2
$10.99
84.7¢ → 77.2¢
-9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
162h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 87.1¢ | $174.2 | $154.4 | -$19.8 | 48% 1222-1315 (2537) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 82.1¢ | $156.58 | $145.87 | -$10.71 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 15.4¢ | $79.22 | $102.77 | +$23.54 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.9¢ | $19.88 | $25 | +$5.13 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.5¢ | $10.5 | $20 | +$9.5 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $11.73 | $12.35 | +$0.62 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.4¢ | $8.62 | $11.2 | +$2.58 | — 0-12 (12) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.4¢ | $0.48 | $0.62 | +$0.14 | 26% 378-1078 (1456) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$174.2
Value
$154.4
PnL
-$19.8
Record
48%
1222-1315 (2537)
Invested
$156.58
Value
$145.87
PnL
-$10.71
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
balthazarCTRInvested
$79.22
Value
$102.77
PnL
+$23.54
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$25
PnL
+$5.13
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$10.5
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.5
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$11.73
Value
$12.35
PnL
+$0.62
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$8.62
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$2.58
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.62
PnL
+$0.14
Record
26%
378-1078 (1456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.