Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$1.1K
-$61.96
85.1¢ → 80¢
-6% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Late
160h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 85.5¢ | $436.05 | $408.51 | -$27.54 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 86.7¢ | $195.23 | $180.47 | -$14.77 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 81.7¢ | $114.69 | $115.53 | +$0.85 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $106.82 | $100.12 | -$6.7 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
VE VerilyWinningly<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $53.99 | $50.46 | -$3.53 | 26% 378-1078 (1456) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $50.55 | $50.05 | -$0.5 | — 1-10 (11) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $49.56 | $49.44 | -$0.12 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $52.09 | $48.86 | -$3.23 | 23% 510-1692 (2202) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $47.99 | $44.86 | -$3.14 | — 0-12 (12) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $43.81 | $40.85 | -$2.96 | — 1-9 (10) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $4.34 | $4 | -$0.33 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
balthazarInvested
$436.05
Value
$408.51
PnL
-$27.54
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
LucerysInvested
$195.23
Value
$180.47
PnL
-$14.77
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$114.69
Value
$115.53
PnL
+$0.85
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$106.82
Value
$100.12
PnL
-$6.7
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$53.99
Value
$50.46
PnL
-$3.53
Record
26%
378-1078 (1456)
Invested
$50.55
Value
$50.05
PnL
-$0.5
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$49.56
Value
$49.44
PnL
-$0.12
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$52.09
Value
$48.86
PnL
-$3.23
Record
23%
510-1692 (2202)
Invested
$47.99
Value
$44.86
PnL
-$3.14
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$43.81
Value
$40.85
PnL
-$2.96
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$4.34
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.33
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
balthazar
No — $408.51
Lucerys
No — $180.47
xtxpleasecallme
No — $115.53
god83743894
No — $100.12
VerilyWinningly
No — $50.46
0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F
No — $50.05
korda77
No — $49.44
SPLPB
No — $48.86
WarriorH
No — $44.86
SulkingCrypto
No — $40.85