Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 92¢ · $205 held · ends Nov 4

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$205

Combined PnL

-$42.07

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$131.85

Total Shares141

Combined PnL-$33.39

No6 traders

Total Value$72.93

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$8.67

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcat	Yesavg 128¢	$121.74	$83.27	-$32.59	53% 1553-1358 (2911)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 77.7¢	$60.34	$48.58	-$0.8	52% 2019-1846 (3865)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$85.46	$35.4	-$14.46	36% 14881-26989 (41870)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$16.8	$23.8	+$7	61% 20702-13120 (33822)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 9.3¢	$13.37	$12.19	-$1.18	52% 4918-4517 (9435)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$0.9	$0.85	-$0.05	28% 190-480 (670)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$0.65	$0.61	-$0.04	30% 261-605 (866)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Noavg 15.7¢	$4.4	$0.09	+$0.05	42% 9929-13844 (23773)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$121.74

Value

$83.27

PnL

-$32.59

Record

53%

1553-1358 (2911)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.34

Value

$48.58

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

2019-1846 (3865)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$85.46

Value

$35.4

PnL

-$14.46

Record

36%

14881-26989 (41870)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$23.8

PnL

+$7

Record

61%

20702-13120 (33822)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$13.37

Value

$12.19

PnL

-$1.18

Record

52%

4918-4517 (9435)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

28%

190-480 (670)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$0.04

Record

30%

261-605 (866)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

9929-13844 (23773)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.