Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 95¢ · $246 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$246
$14.57
79.8¢ → 94.5¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepooppoop | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $308.21 | $192.11 | +$37.02 | 52% 2026-1848 (3874) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 87.6¢ | $95.57 | $46.99 | -$13.62 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $9 | $3.55 | -$5.45 | 52% 2439-2232 (4671) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $3.78 | $1.92 | -$1.86 | 42% 5200-7124 (12324) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $2.52 | $0.99 | -$1.53 | 52% 4926-4535 (9461) |
Invested
$308.21
Value
$192.11
PnL
+$37.02
Record
52%
2026-1848 (3874)
Invested
$95.57
Value
$46.99
PnL
-$13.62
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$9
Value
$3.55
PnL
-$5.45
Record
52%
2439-2232 (4671)
Invested
$3.78
Value
$1.92
PnL
-$1.86
Record
42%
5200-7124 (12324)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$1.53
Record
52%
4926-4535 (9461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.