Will the Republican Party win the TX-28 House seat?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $420 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$420
$7.78
83.6¢ → 94.5¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 85.1¢ | $315.07 | $307.96 | -$7.11 | 35% 14744-26906 (41650) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $67.26 | $67.26 | +$0 | 40% 384-571 (955) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $39.8 | $34.24 | +$14.48 | 52% 2017-1845 (3862) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.98 | $5.4 | +$0.42 | 48% 3413-3685 (7098) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.73 | $4.73 | +$0 | 31% 307-668 (975) |
Invested
$315.07
Value
$307.96
PnL
-$7.11
Record
35%
14744-26906 (41650)
Invested
$67.26
Value
$67.26
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
384-571 (955)
Invested
$39.8
Value
$34.24
PnL
+$14.48
Record
52%
2017-1845 (3862)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.42
Record
48%
3413-3685 (7098)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
307-668 (975)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.