Will the Republican Party win the TX-02 House seat?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 94.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,370

Combined PnL+$1.7K

No9 traders

Total Value$11.9

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$24.96

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SitsToPee	Yesavg 86¢	$476.61	$790.76	+$1.7K	59% 382-268 (650)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 72.6¢	$354.21	$326.85	+$19.66	45% 2583-3110 (5693)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 22.2¢	$254.37	$159.3	-$95.07	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 91.9¢	$107.9	$99.79	-$8.11
└ No leg	Noavg 22.2¢	$146.47	$59.51	-$86.96
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 72.2¢	$81.26	$90.45	+$9.19	48% 6965-7593 (14558)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Yesavg 85.5¢	$43.37	$12.22	-$17.46	55% 181-147 (328)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 21.4¢	$5.6	$2.35	-$3.24	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$4.6	$1.8	-$2.8	59% 3665-2556 (6221)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 26.5¢	$7.62	$1.72	-$5.89	47% 1638-1811 (3449)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$8.16	$1.63	-$6.53	40% 2112-3153 (5265)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 25.3¢	$3.59	$1.28	-$2.31	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$3.09	$1.11	-$1.98	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 15.3¢	$2.63	$1.03	-$1.6	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 16.5¢	$1.01	$0.55	-$0.46	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.57	$0.43	-$0.14	39% 1023-1615 (2638)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$476.61

Value

$790.76

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

59%

382-268 (650)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$354.21

Value

$326.85

PnL

+$19.66

Record

45%

2583-3110 (5693)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$254.37

Value

$159.3

PnL

-$95.07

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

Both legs:

Yes$107.991.9¢-$8.11

No$146.4722.2¢-$86.96

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.26

Value

$90.45

PnL

+$9.19

Record

48%

6965-7593 (14558)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.37

Value

$12.22

PnL

-$17.46

Record

55%

181-147 (328)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$3.24

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$2.8

Record

59%

3665-2556 (6221)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$7.62

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$5.89

Record

47%

1638-1811 (3449)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$6.53

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$2.31

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$1.98

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.63

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$1.6

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.46

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.14

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.