Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 95¢ · $483 held · ends Nov 4

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$482.6

Combined PnL

-$9.28

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 94.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$476

Total Shares480

Combined PnL-$6.2

No3 traders

Total Value$6.6

Total Shares132

Combined PnL-$3.08

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Yesavg 95¢	$408	$400	-$8	21% 295-1083 (1378)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$55.8	$57	+$1.2	50% 1653-1638 (3291)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$18.4	$19	+$0.6	42% 5206-7139 (12345)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 9.5¢	$7.6	$4	-$3.6	36% 15244-27336 (42580)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$1.84	$2.3	+$0.46	52% 4954-4579 (9533)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.24	$0.3	+$0.06	52% 2453-2270 (4723)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$408

Value

$400

PnL

-$8

Record

21%

295-1083 (1378)

ABC12345654321<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.8

Value

$57

PnL

+$1.2

Record

50%

1653-1638 (3291)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.6

Record

42%

5206-7139 (12345)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

-$3.6

Record

36%

15244-27336 (42580)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.46

Record

52%

4954-4579 (9533)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

2453-2270 (4723)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.