Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $893 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$893
-$159.62
82.6¢ → 86.5¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 84.5¢ | $401.92 | $265.06 | -$18.99 | 35% 14744-26906 (41650) |
PU purplegatto | Noavg 80¢ | $223.87 | $240.03 | +$16.16 | 50% 5750-5854 (11604) |
AN anoin123CTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $273.74 | $184.78 | -$88.97 | 47% 446-513 (959) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $72.62 | $71.91 | -$0.02 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $47.3 | $47.58 | +$0.28 | 61% 20619-13064 (33683) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $73.2 | $41.18 | -$32.03 | 53% 1550-1357 (2907) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $23.36 | $28.46 | +$5.1 | 48% 3413-3685 (7098) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 69.1¢ | $51.81 | $10.13 | -$41.68 | 40% 9437-14102 (23539) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $4.33 | +$0.53 | 52% 2422-2215 (4637) |
Invested
$401.92
Value
$265.06
PnL
-$18.99
Record
35%
14744-26906 (41650)
Invested
$223.87
Value
$240.03
PnL
+$16.16
Record
50%
5750-5854 (11604)
Invested
$273.74
Value
$184.78
PnL
-$88.97
Record
47%
446-513 (959)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$72.62
Value
$71.91
PnL
-$0.02
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
balthazar<$100Invested
$47.3
Value
$47.58
PnL
+$0.28
Record
61%
20619-13064 (33683)
Invested
$73.2
Value
$41.18
PnL
-$32.03
Record
53%
1550-1357 (2907)
Invested
$23.36
Value
$28.46
PnL
+$5.1
Record
48%
3413-3685 (7098)
Invested
$51.81
Value
$10.13
PnL
-$41.68
Record
40%
9437-14102 (23539)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$4.33
PnL
+$0.53
Record
52%
2422-2215 (4637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.