Will the Republican Party win the PA-06 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $395 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$395
-$13.4
95.9¢ → 99.2¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 96¢ | $331.44 | $336.96 | +$5.52 | 52% 4926-4535 (9461) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $28.5 | $29.28 | +$0.78 | 52% 2439-2232 (4671) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $44.4 | $26.64 | -$17.76 | 55% 4894-3954 (8848) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $2.43 | $1.28 | -$1.14 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $2 | $1.2 | -$0.8 | 42% 5200-7124 (12324) |
Invested
$331.44
Value
$336.96
PnL
+$5.52
Record
52%
4926-4535 (9461)
Invested
$28.5
Value
$29.28
PnL
+$0.78
Record
52%
2439-2232 (4671)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$44.4
Value
$26.64
PnL
-$17.76
Record
55%
4894-3954 (8848)
Invested
$2.43
Value
$1.28
PnL
-$1.14
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$0.8
Record
42%
5200-7124 (12324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.