Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $521 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$521.17
-$8.11
77.1¢ → 81.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 80¢ | $264.02 | $267.32 | +$3.3 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 70¢ | $98.08 | $113.5 | +$15.41 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $108.54 | $79.32 | -$29.22 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $57.72 | $59.94 | +$2.22 | 38% 19-31 (50) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $0.92 | $1.1 | +$0.18 | 51% 2515-2390 (4905) |
Invested
$264.02
Value
$267.32
PnL
+$3.3
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$98.08
Value
$113.5
PnL
+$15.41
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$108.54
Value
$79.32
PnL
-$29.22
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$57.72
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$2.22
Record
38%
19-31 (50)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.18
Record
51%
2515-2390 (4905)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.