Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $993 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$992.75
$1.17
89.7¢ → 92¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 87.5¢ | $364.52 | $354.69 | -$8.87 | 36% 15244-27336 (42580) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 91¢ | $179.29 | $180.67 | +$1.38 | 32% 324-694 (1018) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $179.88 | $180.67 | +$0.79 | 31% 277-626 (903) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $109.95 | $110.19 | +$0.24 | 40% 401-600 (1001) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $90.18 | $90.48 | +$0.3 | 32% 330-696 (1026) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $60.45 | $60.78 | +$0.33 | 48% 3433-3718 (7151) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $25.69 | $15.26 | +$7.01 | 53% 1555-1359 (2914) |
Invested
$364.52
Value
$354.69
PnL
-$8.87
Record
36%
15244-27336 (42580)
Invested
$179.29
Value
$180.67
PnL
+$1.38
Record
32%
324-694 (1018)
Invested
$179.88
Value
$180.67
PnL
+$0.79
Record
31%
277-626 (903)
Invested
$109.95
Value
$110.19
PnL
+$0.24
Record
40%
401-600 (1001)
Invested
$90.18
Value
$90.48
PnL
+$0.3
Record
32%
330-696 (1026)
Invested
$60.45
Value
$60.78
PnL
+$0.33
Record
48%
3433-3718 (7151)
Invested
$25.69
Value
$15.26
PnL
+$7.01
Record
53%
1555-1359 (2914)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.