Will the Republican Party win the NC-10 House seat?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$100.9

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 99.7¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,312

Combined PnL+$102.85

No4 traders

Total Value$0.83

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$1.96

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

173h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SitsToPee	Yesavg 94.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$62.61	52% 846-780 (1626)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 81.5¢	$62.79	$76.69	+$14.37	48% 2013-2143 (4156)
HolyMoses7<$100	Yesavg 98.9¢	$47.22	$47.58	+$0.5	50% 1789-1804 (3593)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$3.6	$28.39	+$24.78	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yes	$5.43	$5.43	+$0.59	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 7.4¢	$572.57	$0.45	+$3.74	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Noavg 6.4¢	$4.5	$0.28	-$4.23	45% 17-21 (38)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$1.2	$0.08	-$1.12	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 18.3¢	$1.76	$0.02	-$0.34	51% 327-314 (641)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$1,086.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$62.61

Record

52%

846-780 (1626)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.79

Value

$76.69

PnL

+$14.37

Record

48%

2013-2143 (4156)

HolyMoses7<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.22

Value

$47.58

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

1789-1804 (3593)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$28.39

PnL

+$24.78

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.59

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$572.57

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$3.74

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$4.23

Record

45%

17-21 (38)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.12

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.34

Record

51%

327-314 (641)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

173h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.