Will the Republican Party win the NC-08 House seat?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $494 held · ended Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$493.93

Combined PnL

-$13.47

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 97.7¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$482.3

Total Shares505

Combined PnL+$9.05

No5 traders

Total Value$11.62

Total Shares646

Combined PnL-$22.52

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 89.3¢	$176.17	$176.77	+$10.59	45% 2832-3443 (6275)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 91.2¢	$311.77	$137.27	-$5.72	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 92.7¢	$97.32	$99.23	+$5.51	48% 7113-7815 (14928)
HolyMoses7<$100	Yesavg 99.3¢	$52.69	$50.13	-$2.56	54% 1645-1408 (3053)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 83.5¢	$17.67	$18.9	+$1.23	50% 2449-2405 (4854)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Noavg 5.3¢	$0.53	$9	-$17.14	60% 734-487 (1221)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 6.1¢	$126.39	$1.52	+$0.32	48% 1885-2022 (3907)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 3.1¢	$18.35	$0.75	+$0.1	51% 264-254 (518)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$5.38	$0.26	-$5.12	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 15.5¢	$0.78	$0.09	-$0.69	53% 8266-7377 (15643)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$176.17

Value

$176.77

PnL

+$10.59

Record

45%

2832-3443 (6275)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$311.77

Value

$137.27

PnL

-$5.72

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.32

Value

$99.23

PnL

+$5.51

Record

48%

7113-7815 (14928)

HolyMoses7<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.69

Value

$50.13

PnL

-$2.56

Record

54%

1645-1408 (3053)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.67

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$1.23

Record

50%

2449-2405 (4854)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Invested

$0.53

Value

PnL

-$17.14

Record

60%

734-487 (1221)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$126.39

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

1885-2022 (3907)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$18.35

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

264-254 (518)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$5.12

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

8266-7377 (15643)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.