Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $627 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$627
$9.04
94.3¢ → 98¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nicoco89 | Noavg 94¢ | $542.24 | $552.29 | +$10.84 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $55.4 | $55.47 | +$0.07 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
IN influenz.eth | Noavg 94.3¢ | $325.07 | $15.66 | +$1.18 | 42% 9966-13874 (23840) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $6.05 | $2.95 | -$3.1 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.94 | $0.99 | +$0.05 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
nicoco89Invested
$542.24
Value
$552.29
PnL
+$10.84
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$55.4
Value
$55.47
PnL
+$0.07
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
Invested
$325.07
Value
$15.66
PnL
+$1.18
Record
42%
9966-13874 (23840)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$3.1
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.94
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.