Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$43.18

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 85.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,384

Combined PnL+$142.94

Yes3 traders

Total Value$199.04

Total Shares1,474

Combined PnL-$99.77

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

467h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anciano	Noavg 80.4¢	$545.87	$587.23	+$41.36	52% 1168-1072 (2240)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 85.1¢	$764	$504.22	+$8.37	48% 6843-7476 (14319)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 77.1¢	$543.81	$405.17	+$33.78	35% 17316-32015 (49331)
SI SitsToPee	Noavg 76¢	$348.33	$396.46	+$48.13	61% 284-183 (467)
Istaroth	Noavg 86¢	$122.34	$121.25	-$0.01	16% 417-2210 (2627)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$211.94	$116.17	-$44.37	45% 2389-2955 (5344)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100	Noavg 68¢	$41.21	$52.43	+$11.21	61% 209-133 (342)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 26.7¢	$442	$47.25	-$46.07	53% 1578-1414 (2992)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$311.62	$35.62	-$9.32	51% 2116-2028 (4144)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 86¢	$9.29	$9.39	+$0.11	45% 13352-16261 (29613)

anciano

Invested

$545.87

Value

$587.23

PnL

+$41.36

Record

52%

1168-1072 (2240)

Gaditima

Invested

$764

Value

$504.22

PnL

+$8.37

Record

48%

6843-7476 (14319)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$543.81

Value

$405.17

PnL

+$33.78

Record

35%

17316-32015 (49331)

SitsToPee

Invested

$348.33

Value

$396.46

PnL

+$48.13

Record

61%

284-183 (467)

Istaroth

Invested

$122.34

Value

$121.25

PnL

-$0.01

Record

16%

417-2210 (2627)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$211.94

Value

$116.17

PnL

-$44.37

Record

45%

2389-2955 (5344)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100

Invested

$41.21

Value

$52.43

PnL

+$11.21

Record

61%

209-133 (342)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$442

Value

$47.25

PnL

-$46.07

Record

53%

1578-1414 (2992)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$311.62

Value

$35.62

PnL

-$9.32

Record

51%

2116-2028 (4144)

suntori<$100

Invested

$9.29

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.11

Record

45%

13352-16261 (29613)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

467h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.