Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 60¢ · $727 held · ends Nov 4

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$727.37

Combined PnL

$13.38

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 60¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$540.42

Total Shares896

Combined PnL+$30.71

No2 traders

Total Value$186.95

Total Shares504

Combined PnL-$17.33

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 59.1¢	$390.4	$399.89	+$29.29	50% 1654-1640 (3294)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 41.5¢	$229.67	$181.87	-$17.72	36% 15508-27510 (43018)
11 11122<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$46.74	$57.74	+$11	44% 1398-1812 (3210)
LI lineth<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$63.9	$56.7	-$7.2	41% 243-350 (593)
SB sbimbg<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$28.48	$26.1	-$2.38	70% 3149-1361 (4510)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$4.68	$5.07	+$0.39	53% 6540-5754 (12294)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$390.4

Value

$399.89

PnL

+$29.29

Record

50%

1654-1640 (3294)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$229.67

Value

$181.87

PnL

-$17.72

Record

36%

15508-27510 (43018)

11122<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.74

Value

$57.74

PnL

+$11

Record

44%

1398-1812 (3210)

lineth<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.9

Value

$56.7

PnL

-$7.2

Record

41%

243-350 (593)

sbimbg<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.48

Value

$26.1

PnL

-$2.38

Record

70%

3149-1361 (4510)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

6540-5754 (12294)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.0%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$61.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

161.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.